Published & working record

1. Grant, D., Zelinka, D., & Mitova, S. (2021). Reducing CO₂ emissions by targeting the world's hyper-polluting power plants. Environmental Research Letters, 16(9), 094022. Read the case → doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac13f1
   Abstract

   Combusting fossil fuels to produce electricity is the single largest contributor to sector-level, anthropogenic carbon pollution. Because sector-wide policies are often too unwieldy to implement, however, some researchers have recommended reducing electricity-based CO₂ emissions by targeting the most extreme emitters of each nation’s electricity industry. Here, we use a unique international data source to measure national disproportionalities in power plant CO₂ emissions and estimate the fraction of each country’s electricity-based CO₂ emissions that would be reduced if its most profligate polluters lowered their emission intensities, switched to gas fuels, and incorporated carbon capture and storage systems. We find that countries’ disproportionalities vary greatly and have mostly grown over time. We also find that 17%–49% of the world’s CO₂ emissions from electricity generation could be eliminated depending on the intensity standards, fuels, or carbon capture technologies adopted by hyper-emitting plants. This suggests that policies aimed at improving the environmental performance of ‘super polluters’ are effective strategies for transitioning to decarbonized energy systems.

2. Zelinka, D., & Amadei, B. (2019). A Systems Approach for Modeling Interactions Among the Sustainable Development Goals, Part 1: Cross-Impact Network Analysis. International Journal of System Dynamics Applications, 8(1), 23–40. doi:10.4018/IJSDA.2019010102
   Abstract

   This article advocates for a systems approach to analyzing the SDGs, categorized as an anthropocentric network. Cross-impact analysis, a semi-qualitative, soft-systems approach is used to explore the connections among the SDGs. This approach can better capture the science underlying the SDGs’ interactions in a generic manner compared to existing methods. The suggested approach enables users to: (1) get a better qualitative and quantitative understanding of how the SDGs interact; (2) detect emerging patterns resulting from those interactions; (3) use context-specific information about direct impacts to identify indirect effects; and (4) identify leverage points hidden within the SDGs. The article also discusses how network analysis complements cross-impact analysis as a mathematical approach to understanding patterns of interactions among the SDGs. The term cross-impact network analysis is proposed to describe the synergy between these two analytical methods. This article is the first of two papers systematically analyzing the interactions between the SDGs.

3. Zelinka, D., & Amadei, B. (2019). A Systems Approach for Modeling Interactions Among the Sustainable Development Goals, Part 2: System Dynamics. International Journal of System Dynamics Applications, 8(1), 41–59. doi:10.4018/IJSDA.2019010103
   Abstract

   This article presents a methodology using system dynamics to model the time-dependent progress of each one of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as their mutual interactions. The hard-systems approach presented herein complements a soft-systems, cross-impact analysis approach presented in part 1. To accomplish this, a modified logistic innovation-diffusion model is used to represent the progress of individual SDGs over time. Then, matrix transposition is used to model the SDGs’ interactions. Combining these two techniques into one system dynamics model, the authors propose an analytical, quantifiable, and easily learned tool to understand the complex interplay among the SDGs as a system. The new web-based tool can be used to analyze several scenarios of the SDGs over time to understand the impact of a certain policy or economic intervention. This article is the second of a sequence of two papers analyzing the interactions between the SDGs in a systemic manner.Abstract as listed by the publisher (retrieved via RePEc, 2026-07-10); the article PDF itself is not in hand.

4. Zelinka, D., & Daher, B. (2021). Modeling the Sustainable Development Nexus as a Complicated-Coupled System: Static Cross-Impact Network Analysis. In A. T. Azar (Ed.), Handbook of Research on Modeling, Analysis, and Control of Complex Systems. IGI Global. doi:10.4018/978-1-7998-5788-4.ch001
   Abstract

   This chapter discusses the universal concept of a system through the lens of system thinking and science and applies it to the concept of sustainable development. Because system science is inherently multidisciplinary, examples and concepts are borrowed from many disciplines. Any system can be explained through multiple dimensions or components of which this chapter details ‘structure’ by modeling systems as static cross-impact networks; it frames sustainable development—referred to as anthropocentric systems—as an interconnected group of sectors, like an economy, using a nexus approach. As nations work toward implementing the complex and interconnected United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), this chapter offers methods to identify the type of interactions and quantify the strengths among them. This approach supports the process of priority setting and highlights areas in particular needed for policy coordination across different sectors.

5. Zelinka, D., & Daher, B. (2021). Modeling the Sustainable Development Nexus as a Complex-Coupled System: System Dynamics Modeling. In A. T. Azar (Ed.), Handbook of Research on Modeling, Analysis, and Control of Complex Systems. IGI Global. doi:10.4018/978-1-7998-5788-4.ch002
   Abstract

   This chapter begins with defining complex systems, presents an overview of the applied science of dynamical systems by focusing on the main components of complexity and chaos, and introduces the concept of dimensionality of systems. Systems have structural and temporal (dynamic) components – they exist in space and time. This chapter focuses on the time dimension, called temporality. The authors classify a third dimension, chaos (randomness), and illustrate that all systems can be defined according to their structure, dynamics, and chaos. These three dimensions constitute the dimensionality of systems, which can be used to define and categorize all types of systems. A system dynamics model to quantify the progress and interactions among the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) is introduced. The benefits and limitations of a system dynamics modeling approach in this context are then discussed.

6. Daher, B., & Zelinka, D. (2021). Water-Energy-Food Interconnections: Methods, Tools, and Cross-Sectoral Decision Making. In Clean Water and Sanitation, Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Springer, Cham. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-70061-8_113-1

7. Zelinka, D., & Amadei, B. (2018). A new insecure-secure diffusion archetype to model complex anthropocentric systems. 36th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Reykjavík, Iceland.
   Abstract

   This paper presents a new insecure-secure diffusion (change-of-state) archetype that is based on the S-shaped growth behavior. The archetype is particularly useful in modeling the dynamic of anthropocentric systems related to development and aid for which flow is allowed to occur back and forth between stocks. In these systems, the main actors are directly and strongly influenced by complex human socio-economic-political interactions that are themselves not humans but are indirectly influenced by human interactions. It is shown how the proposed archetype can depict the evolution of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) over time, global trade, and the dynamics behind migration, urbanization, and land-use change. Three versions of the archetype are presented: a two-chambered and extended linear form, a three-chambered triangular form, and a four-chambered hierarchical form. The different versions can be used in different situations.

8. Zelinka, D., & Amadei, B. (2018). A Systems Approach to Modeling Corruption: Bridging the Disciplinary Divide Between the Social and Technical Sciences. 24th ISDRS Conference, Messina, Italy.
   Abstract

   Corruption is considered one of, if not the, largest issue hindering progress towards sustainable development and ultimately the global eradication of poverty. Corruption decreases the amount of aid that reaches its intending destination for those in need. It also reduces the efficiency of international aid thereby undermining its validity. Corruption depresses the incomes and overall GDP of many countries in Africa, especially those reliant on aid with rich deposits of natural resources. This paper focuses on the effects of corruption on natural resource governance. Specifically, the paper addresses the so called “natural resource curse” as a guiding framework, which is an especially problematic paradox in African countries. The premise is that an abundance of natural resources leads to more corruption, thereby to less economic growth, less democratic government, and lower levels of development, as measured by the Human Development Index, than countries with less natural resources endowments. A novel systems modeling methodology combining civil systems engineering, system dynamics, and political science is presented to analyze the interactions of corruption with the environment in the context of the natural resource curse in African countries. Until now, few systems approaches have been proposed to analyze different acts of corruption (rentier effect, repression effect, and modernization effect) in any fashion, and the ones that do rely entirely on perception-based data, namely the Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. The systems-based methodology presented herein is compatible with the social sciences and directly utilizes peer-reviewed literature as a tool to build models. In doing so, we advocate more collaboration and transdisciplinary research among technical scientists and engineers, system dynamicists, and social scientists (especially political scientists to address corruption issues and complex issues more broadly). New system-level understanding of corruption can be extracted from methods such as the one proposed and presented herein. To demonstrate this capability, a qualitative system dynamic stock-and-flow diagram is created where each variable and interaction is sourced to at least one peer-reviewed, social science article that can greatly increase model validation and confidence in accuracy; it depicts the world as it is, not as the modelers thinks it is. The proposed methodology can effectively aggregate the relevant data and literature into a high-level model, yielding significant insight and value to decision makers and those working with complex social and political issues.

9. Zelinka, D., & Amadei, B. (2018). Analyzing sustainable development: systems-based methods and modeling tools for the Sustainable Development Goals. 24th ISDRS Conference, Messina, Italy.
   Abstract

   The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent a 15-year roadmap for global sustainable development with the ultimate goal of eradicating extreme poverty. Devised through political consensus, as opposed to academic consensus, the SDGs were formulated as a list of 17 goals and 169 targets with limited consideration for their interactions. Since their inception, there has been an increasing interest in formulating and quantifying these interactions and addressing the 17 goals in an integrated manner. This is a challenging and laborious task due to the underlying complex socioeconomic, political, and environmental issues at play among each goal and their associated targets. This paper belongs to a group of recent contributions interested in utilizing soft- and hard-systems approaches to model the SDGs in an integrated manner. Two types of analyses are presented: the cross-impact analysis (soft approach) and system dynamics (hard approach). Both approaches consider all potential interactions among the SDGs. The cross-impact analysis is useful for a static representation of the SDGs and can be carried out with relative ease; it provides a good overview of the SDG as a complete system. System dynamic models by their very nature change with time and can model long-term interactions and trends and identify emergent patterns and leverage points; they require more effort to construct but can be used to produce highly-informative scenarios and what-if analyses. Models illustrating the application of these two approaches to the SDGs are also presented with an accompanying user-friendly, web-based interface tool designed for anyone interested in exploring trade-offs and synergies among the SDGs. This tool will be updated constantly and should be of particular interest to decision and policy makers and those actually responsible for implementing the SDGs at the country-level.

10. Amadei, B., & Zelinka, D. (2018). Integrated Modeling of the Water-Energy-Land-Food Nexus: Importance of Context, Scale, Boundary, and Community Capacity. 24th ISDRS Conference, Messina, Italy.
    Abstract

    Water, energy, land, and food resources are critical components in the overall discourse on sustainable human development. There is a consensus in the water-energy-land-food (WELF) nexus literature that the management and allocation of water, energy, land, and food resources at the community-level needs to be considered in a more systemic, multidisciplinary, and practical manner. This paper emphasizes that the nexus cannot be separated, modeled, and understood in isolation from the environment and the systems (social, infrastructure, economic, and environmental) with which it interacts. This paper explores the importance of context, scale, and boundary selection when developing hard system-based models of the nexus at the community-level. It also emphasizes the importance of accounting for community capacity and the level of community development to provide services across the four sectors of the nexus. Communities with higher levels of development can expect to have higher levels of services to start with when managing and allocating their resources. Finally, a simple system dynamics example is presented to illustrate how to link population, WELF resources, and community capacity.

11. Zelinka, D., & Amadei, B. (2017). A Methodology to Model the Integrated Nature of the Sustainable Development Goals: Importance for Engineering Education. ASEE Annual Conference & Exposition, Columbus, OH.

12. Zelinka, D. (2019). Systems Approaches to Transdisciplinary Sustainable Development Issues. Doctoral dissertation, University of Colorado Boulder.
13. Zelinka, D. (2016). An environmental impact assessment of chemicals in hydraulic fracturing operations for a selection of oil and gas wells compared to coal-bed methane wells in Colorado. Master's thesis, University of Colorado Denver.

14. Dehghan, J., Nama, S., & Zelinka, D. (2021). A Sahel Town Builds a Way to Improve Reforms—and Foreign Aid. United States Institute of Peace. Relates to Burkina Faso judicial reform →

These are not peer-reviewed. I include them because they reflect current work, but they carry less weight than the reviewed record above and their claims may change.

15. Halash, S., Zelinka, D., & Amadei, B. (2024). Using system dynamics to assess and model community capacities and interaction patterns: domestic wastewater treatment in the West Bank. Submitted.
16. Zelinka, D. L., & Karunanithi, A. T. (2024). A comparative ecotoxicity impact assessment of hydraulic fracturing chemicals used in oil-and-gas and coal-bed-methane wells. Research Square preprint. doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-4356156/v1
    Abstract

    In this study, we examine the ecotoxicity impacts of chemicals used in hydraulic-fracturing (HF) operations for shale-based oil and gas (O&G) and coal-bed methane (CBM) wells in Colorado. The chemical constituents of HF fluids were analyzed for 40 O&G and 10 CBM wells located in Weld and Las Animas counties. Integrating toxicity data, physical properties, and fate and transport parameter predictions with the USEtox human and ecotoxicological impact model, we developed new fresh water ecotoxicity characterization factors for 184 different chemicals that are commonly used in fracking operations. Further, we also estimated and analyzed the overall ecotoxicity impacts associated with the potential release of these chemicals into the environment. We found that CBM HF wells, on an average, resulted in 12.6% greater ecotoxicity impacts from chemical release than O&G wells. Ecological Impacts were highly-sensitive to the fraction of HF fluid that returns to the surface as part of flow back.(Extraction note: the preprint PDF renders some “fl” ligatures as blanks; “fluids” and “flow back” are restored here.)